{"id":808,"date":"2016-04-22T08:12:59","date_gmt":"2016-04-22T08:12:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/?p=808"},"modified":"2016-05-05T08:18:52","modified_gmt":"2016-05-05T08:18:52","slug":"black-knight-first-look-at-march-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/black-knight-first-look-at-march-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Black Knight – “First Look” at March 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

Published on: Apr 22, 2016 @ 8:12 am<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Black Knight – “First Look” at March 2016<\/h3>\n

The Data and Analytics division of Black Knight
\nFinancial Services (NYSE: BKFS) reports the following
\n\u201cfirst look\u201d at March 2016 month-end mortgage
\nperformance statistics derived from its loan-level
\ndatabase representing the majority of the national
\nmortgage market.<\/p>\n

–\u00a0 National delinquency rate fell 8% in March; at
\n4.08%, it is at its lowest point since March 2007
\n–\u00a0 At just under 2%, the rate of 30-day delinquencies
\nis at lowest level in over 15 years
\n–\u00a0 Spurred by declining interest rates, prepayment
\nspeeds (historically a good indicator of refinance
\nactivity) were up 46% from one month ago
\n–\u00a0 Foreclosure starts were down 14% from February;
\nstill driven primarily by repeat foreclosure activity<\/p>\n

US jobless claims fall to 4-decade low<\/h3>\n

A proxy for layoffs across the US pointed to one of the
\nhealthiest labor markets in decades, as the number of
\nUS workers who applied for new unemployment benefits
\ndeclined to the lowest level since the early 1970s.
\nInitial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to a seasonally
\nadjusted 247,000 in the week ended April 16, the Labor
\nDepartment said Thursday. That was the lowest level for
\njobless claims since the week of Nov. 24, 1973.\u00a0 That
\nalso marked the 59th straight week that initial jobless
\nclaims remained below 300,000, the longest such streak
\nin more than four decades.\u00a0 Recent claims data are
\n\u201castonishingly low,\u201d said Timothy Hopper, chief
\neconomist at TIAA Global Asset Management. \u201cThe fact
\nthat the numbers continue to ratchet down suggests that
\nlabor demand is strong and a sign the labor market
\nshould continue to improve.\u201d\u00a0 Yet while the numbers
\npoint to a stable labor market, they don\u2019t foretell an
\neconomic acceleration. In fact, last time jobless
\nclaims were this low, an oil-shock recession had just
\nbegun.\u00a0 The direction of the layoff proxy is a key
\ndifference between the latest readings and those in
\n1973. Jobless claims entered 2016 near these historic
\nlows but have fallen slightly. In contrast, by November
\n1973, when the National Bureau of Economic Research
\npegs the start of a recession that stretched into the
\nearly part of 1975, jobless claims had been modestly
\nclimbing for nine months.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve officials will likely consider the
\nrelative health of the labor market at next week\u2019s
\npolicy meeting. But recently, central bankers have
\nindicated they are concerned about weakness in the
\nglobal economy and are watching inflation readings and
\nwage gains closely. A large majority of economists
\nsurveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the Fed to
\nhold its benchmark interest rate steady at the meeting.
\nA low level of layoffs typically coincides with solid
\nhiring. Employers added 215,000 jobs in March, a
\nhealthy increase. The unemployment rate ticked up to
\n5%, but the increase in part reflected more workers
\nentering the labor force.\u00a0 Jobless claims have trended
\nnear the four-decade low much of this spring. But that
\ncomes with a caveat. The Easter holiday, which moves on
\nthe calendar each year, can distort seasonal
\nadjustments to the data during March and April. The
\nfour-week moving average, which smooths out volatility,
\nfell by 4,500 last week to 260,500. That level has
\nstayed fairly consistent since early March.\u00a0 Still,
\nthere was one other historical point of strength in the
\nlatest reading. A measure of the number of people on
\nunemployment rolls, which are reported with a one-week
\nlag, fell by 39,000 in the week ended April 9 to the
\nlowest level recorded since 2000.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NAHB – remodeling market index dips in first quarter of
\n2016<\/h3>\n

The National Association of Home Builders\u2019 (NAHB)
\nRemodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 54 in
\nthe first quarter of 2016, dipping four points below
\nthe previous quarter but remaining in positive
\nterritory above 50.\u00a0 An RMI above 50 indicates that
\nmore remodelers report market activity is higher
\n(compared to the prior quarter) than report it is
\nlower. The overall RMI averages ratings of current
\nremodeling activity with indicators of future
\nremodeling activity.\u00a0 \u201cRemodelers were solidly booked
\nfor jobs in the first quarter of 2016 but calls and
\nappointments for work slowed down in comparison to the
\nend of 2015,\u201d said 2016 NAHB Remodelers Chair Tim
\nShigley, CAPS, CGP, GMB, GMR, a remodeler from Wichita,
\nKan. \u201cVolatility in the financial markets during the
\nfirst quarter may have impacted consumers\u2019 readiness to
\ncommit to projects.\u201d\u00a0 The RMI\u2019s current market
\nconditions index stands at 55, decreasing by a single
\npoint from the previous quarter. Among its components,
\nmajor additions and alterations continued gains from
\nthe previous quarter, rising to 55 from 54. The smaller
\nremodeling projects component decreased two points to
\n54, and the home maintenance and repair component of
\nthe RMI decreased two points to 56.\u00a0 At 53, the RMI\u2019s
\nfuture market conditions index decreased six points
\nfrom the previous quarter. Among its four components,
\ncalls for bids decreased to 51 from 58, the amount of
\nwork committed fell to 52 from 57 and appointments for
\nproposals dropped to 52 from 60. Meanwhile, the backlog
\nof remodeling jobs decreased only three points to 58
\nfrom the previous quarter\u2019s reading and high-water mark
\nof 61.<\/p>\n

SunEdison files for bankruptcy protection<\/h3>\n

SunEdison, once the fastest-growing US renewable energy
\ncompany, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on
\nThursday as years of debt-fueled acquisitions proved
\nunsustainable.\u00a0 In its bankruptcy filing, the company
\nsaid it had assets of $20.7 billion and liabilities of
\n$16.1 billion as of Sept. 30.\u00a0 The company said its two
\npublicly traded subsidiaries, TerraForm Power and
\nTerraForm Global, were not part of the bankruptcy.\u00a0 The
\ncompany said it secured up to $300 million in new
\nfinancing from its first-lien and second-lien lenders,
\nwhich is subject to court approval. The money will be
\nused to support SunEdison’s operations during its
\nbankruptcy, such as paying wages and vendors, and
\nproceeding with ongoing projects.\u00a0 “Our decision to
\ninitiate a court-supervised restructuring was a
\ndifficult but important step to address our immediate
\nliquidity issues,” said Ahmad Chatila, SunEdison chief
\nexecutive officer.\u00a0 He said the company planned to use
\nChapter 11 to reduce debt, shed non-core operations and
\ntake steps to get the most value out of its technology
\nand intellectual property.<\/p>\n

Zillow – Q1 2016 market report: tight inventory, rapid
\nprice growth represent real headwinds for the market’s
\ncore<\/p>\n

–\u00a0 There are 5.9% fewer homes for sale in the US than
\nthere were a year ago.
\n–\u00a0 There are 10.4% fewer entry-level homes for sale in
\nthe US than there were a year ago.
\n–\u00a0 Low supply is driving up home prices among
\nentry-level homes, which are often sought after by
\nfirst-time buyers.<\/p>\n

Faced with rapidly appreciating home values and a
\ndwindling inventory of homes for sale in the critical
\nentry-level and mid-market home segments, first-time
\nand move-up home buyers \u2013 typically the housing
\nmarket\u2019s bread-and-butter \u2013 are likely in store for a
\ntough spring home shopping season.\u00a0 Nationwide, median
\nhome values rose 4.8% year-over-year in March and 1.1%
\nover the course of the first quarter, to a Zillow Home
\nValue Index of $186,200, according to the first quarter
\nZillow Real Estate Market Report. And while overall US
\nhome values continue to grow at a modest (though slowly
\naccelerating) clip, home values are rising the fastest
\namong entry-level and mid-market homes in a large
\nmajority of the nation\u2019s biggest housing markets.\u00a0 A
\nnumber of factors are driving this growth, and many are
\npositive, including strengthening household formation,
\ncontinued growth in jobs and wages, and general
\nconfidence and optimism in the overall value of
\nhomeownership, especially among younger generations.
\nBut the likeliest contributor to this rapid growth in
\nthe bottom and middle is worrisome: There is a real
\nlack of homes to buy in these segments.<\/p>\n

Overall, there were 5.9% fewer homes available for sale
\nnationwide at the end of the first quarter than there
\nwere a year ago. But the number of homes for sale in
\nthe bottom and middle thirds of the US market each fell
\nby 10.4%, compared to a relatively scant decline of
\njust 1.9% in the top third of the market.\u00a0 This is
\nleading to a situation in which the majority of homes
\nfor sale in many markets are more expensive homes not
\ntypically sought by budget-conscious entry-level and
\nyounger buyers. In all 35 of the nation\u2019s largest
\nmarkets and the US as a whole, more homes are available
\nfor sale in the top-third of the market than in either
\nof the other segments. In nine of those large metros,
\ntop-tier homes make up more than half of all homes
\navailable for sale.\u00a0 And strong demand for
\nmore-affordable homes, driven in part by those healthy
\nfundamentals noted earlier, can\u2019t help but push prices
\nup more quickly for those budget-friendly homes that
\nare available. Home values in the bottom tier are
\ngrowing faster than the other two tiers in 18 of the
\nnation\u2019s 35 largest metro housing markets, and
\nmiddle-tier growth is outpacing bottom and top-tier
\ngrowth in another eleven. That leaves just six of the
\ncountry\u2019s 35 largest markets in which home value growth
\nin the top tier is outpacing the bottom and middle.
\nAnd in some cases, the growth rates between top and
\nbottom tiers aren\u2019t particularly close. In the
\nfast-growing Denver metro, for example, bottom-tier
\nhome values grew at a 20.3% annual pace in March,
\nfastest among markets in which bottom-tier values are
\ngrowing the most, and almost double local top-tier
\nannual growth of \u201cjust\u201d 10.6%. Similar trends can be
\nfound in Phoenix, where bottom-tier home values are
\ngrowing at almost triple the annual pace of top-tier
\nvalues (11.2% at the bottom vs. 4.2% at the top) and
\nRiverside (10% vs. 2.7%).<\/p>\n

This rapid home value appreciation and limited
\ninventory in the bottom two-thirds of the market
\nundoubtedly puts a majority of would-be home buyers in
\na tough spot. But the flip side is that those
\nbetter-heeled buyers in search of a top-tier home are
\nswimming in much smoother waters.\u00a0 Annual home value
\ngrowth among top-tier homes in 20 of the nation\u2019s top
\n35 markets is slower than the overall national pace of
\n4.8%. Additionally, the most expensive homes on the
\nmarket are also more likely to have a price cut. The
\nshare of top-tier listings nationwide with a price cut
\nhas increased 1.6 percentage points over the past year,
\ncompared to just 0.4 percentage points in the middle
\ntier and 0.5 percentage points at the bottom.\u00a0 In other
\nwords, buyers looking for the most expensive homes will
\nfind somewhat softening prices, a relatively larger
\nselection of homes to choose from and more limited
\ncompetition this spring. At the same time, entry-level
\nand mid-market buyers are likely to face much stiffer
\ncompetition, rapidly rising prices and very limited
\ninventory.\u00a0 Yet another reminder that it pays to be
\nwealthy.<\/p>\n

In March, the median US home value rose 0.4% from
\nFebruary, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. US
\nhome values have grown on a year-over-year basis for 45
\nstraight months.\u00a0 But while home values have been
\ngrowing consistently for going on four years, lately,
\nthe pace of growth has picked up after a yearlong
\ncooling-off period from spring 2014 through spring
\n2015. The post-bottom pace of annual home value growth
\npeaked at 7.9% in April 2014, then slowed in each of
\nthe subsequent 12 months, reaching a low of 2.7% in
\nApril 2015. Annual home value growth has since been
\nhigher than the month before in 10 of the past 11
\nmonths, before falling somewhat in March to a 4.8%
\npace, from 4.9% in February.\u00a0 While annual growth in
\nthis range is largely sustainable and not much to worry
\nabout on its own, this uptick in growth bears watching
\nas the spring home shopping season heats up \u2013
\nespecially in light of the rapid growth and limited
\ninventory issues noted earlier. If home values begin
\ngrowing too much, too fast, many more buyers risk
\ngetting priced out of the market, which has a number of
\ntrickle-down effects. One of these impacts could be
\nfelt in the rental market, as would-be buyers are stuck
\nrenting for longer, keeping apartments occupied that
\nmay otherwise go to newly formed renter households and
\ncontributing to upward pressure on rents themselves.
\nAnother impact could be continued deterioration in home
\naffordability overall if growth in home values outpaces
\nincome growth.\u00a0 Home values in 25 of the nation\u2019s 35
\nlargest metro markets grew faster year-over-year than
\nthe nation\u2019s 4.8% annual pace in March. Home values
\ngrew by more than 10% per year in seven of those large
\nmetro markets: Denver (up 15.7% year-over-year),
\nPortland (14.8%), Dallas (13%), San Jose (12.6%),
\nSeattle (11.7%), San Francisco (11.5%) and Miami
\n(10.5%). None of the nation\u2019s largest metros
\nexperienced annual home value declines in March.<\/p>\n

The US median rent in March was $1,389 per month, up
\n0.5% from February and 2.6% from March 2015, according
\nto the Zillow Rent Index. US rents have grown
\nyear-over-year for 43 consecutive months. March was the
\nfifth straight month in which median US home values
\ngrew faster year-over-year than median rents.\u00a0 Similar
\nto home value growth, annual growth in rents in this
\nrange is normal and nothing to worry much about.
\nHowever, between August 2015 and February, monthly
\nrents in each of those seven months hovered between
\n$1,380 and $1,382, before rising to the current $1,389
\nthis month. This $7 per month bump isn\u2019t huge by any
\nmeans, but does represent a bit of a departure from
\nrecent trends, and could be an early signal that rental
\ngrowth is picking up again, potentially as a result of
\ntightness in the rental market caused by renters unable
\nto find a home to buy in their budget. This also bears
\nwatching.\u00a0 Median rents in all but one of the nation\u2019s
\n35 largest metro markets grew year-over-year to some
\nextent, with only Cleveland experiencing an annual
\ndecline (-1.2% from March 2015). Rents grew fastest
\nyear-over-year in the San Francisco (up 9.9% from March
\n2015), Portland (up 8.6%) and San Jose (up 8%) metros.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, Zillow expects national home values to
\ncontinue growing, rising another 2.7% through March
\n2017 to a Zillow Home Value Index of $191,257. US rents
\nare also expected to keep growing over the next year,
\nat a 2.7% pace through March 2017 to a Zillow Rent
\nIndex of $1,426.\u00a0 Existing home sales activity in March
\nwas fairly strong, a somewhat promising sign for the
\nupcoming spring season after a disappointing February.
\nBut existing home sales have been very volatile lately,
\nand have failed to string together more than a couple
\nmonths in a row of increases before stumbling again. It
\nwill take several solid months this spring to break the
\ntwo-steps-forward, one-step-back routine the market has
\nbeen stuck in for a while \u2013 and it\u2019s hard to
\nmeaningfully increase sales activity when the number of
\nhomes for sale keeps dropping.\u00a0 Which means the market
\ncould be setting up to be pretty tough for potential
\nbuyers this spring, especially for first-time buyers
\nand those looking to move up from their first home and
\ninto a slightly more expensive place. Competition will
\nbe fierce, and buyers\u2019 patience will be tested. In
\norder to stand out in a competitive market, buyers
\nshould get pre-approved for a loan, find an agent who
\nhas experience with bidding wars and be prepared to
\ncome in at the asking price, so the seller knows
\nthey\u2019re serious.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Published on: Apr 22, 2016 @ 8:12 am Black Knight – “First Look” at March 2016 The Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services (NYSE: BKFS) reports the following \u201cfirst look\u201d at March 2016 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market. –\u00a0 National […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[39],"tags":[158,160,157,159,163,165,164,162,161,61],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/808"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=808"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/808\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":811,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/808\/revisions\/811"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}