Pending home sales were mostly unmoved in November, but
\ndid squeak out a minor gain both on a monthly and
\nannualized basis, according to the National Association
\nof Realtors (NAR). Heading into 2018, existing-home
\nsales and price growth are forecast to slow, primarily
\nbecause of the altered tax benefits of homeownership
\naffecting some high-cost areas. The Pending Home Sales
\nIndex, a forward-looking indicator based on contract
\nsignings, rose 0.2% to 109.5 in November from 109.3 in
\nOctober. With last month\u2019s modest increase, the index
\nremains at its highest reading since June (110.0), and
\nis now 0.8% above a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief
\neconomist, says contract signings mustered a small gain
\nin November and were up annually for the first time
\nsince June. \u201cThe housing market is closing the year on
\na stronger note than earlier this summer, backed by
\nsolid job creation and an economy that has kicked into
\na higher gear,\u201d he said. \u201cHowever, new buyers coming
\ninto the market are finding out quickly that their
\noptions are limited and competition is robust.
\nRealtors\u00ae say many would-be buyers from earlier this
\nyear, stifled by tight supply and higher prices, are
\nstill trying to buy a home.\u201d<\/p>\n
One of the biggest questions heading into 2018,
\naccording to Yun, is if the depressed levels of
\navailable supply can improve enough to slow price
\ngrowth and make buying a home more affordable. While
\nlast month\u2019s significant boost in existing sales was
\nnoteworthy, it did come with some concerns. Sales
\nprices were up 5.8% \u2013 more than double wage growth \u2013
\nand the 3.4-month supply of homes on the market was the
\nlowest since NAR began tracking in 1999. \u201cThe
\nstrengthening economy, and expectation that more
\nmillennials will want to buy, serve as promising signs
\nfor solid homebuying demand next year, while also
\nputting additional pressure on inventory levels and
\naffordability,\u201d said Yun. \u201cSales do have room for
\ngrowth in most areas, but nationally, overall activity
\ncould be slightly negative. Markets with high home
\nprices and property taxes will likely feel some impa ct
\nfrom the reduced tax benefits of owning a home.\u201d Yun
\nforecasts for existing-home sales to finish 2017 at
\naround 5.54 million, which is an increase of 1.7% from
\n2016 (5.45 million). The national median existing-home
\nprice this year is expected to increase around 6%. In
\n2018, Yun anticipates essentially no change (a decline
\nof 0.4%) in existing sales (5.52 million), and price
\ngrowth to moderate to around 2%. The PHSI in the
\nNortheast jumped 4.1% to 98.9 in November, and is now
\n1.1% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose
\n0.4% to 105.8 in November, and is now 0.8% higher than
\nNovember 2016. Pending home sales in the South
\ndecreased 0.4% to an index of 123.1 in November but are
\nstill 2.5% higher than last November. The index in the
\nWest declined 1.8% in November to 100.4, and is now
\n2.3% below a year ago.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump targeted online retailer
\nAmazon on Friday in a call for the country’s postal
\nservice to raise prices of shipments in order to recoup
\ncosts. “Why is the United States Post Office, which is
\nlosing many billions of dollars a year, while charging
\nAmazon and others so little to deliver their packages,
\nmaking Amazon richer and the Post Office dumber and
\npoorer? Should be charging MUCH MORE!” Trump wrote on
\nTwitter. The US Postal Service is an independent agency
\nwithin the federal government and does not receive tax
\ndollars for operating expenses, according to its
\nwebsite. The organization makes up a significant
\nportion of the $1.4 trillion US delivery industry.
\nOther players include Fedex Corp and United Parcel
\nService Inc. Amazon was founded by Jeff Bezos, who
\nremains the chief executive officer of the reta il
\ngiant. Bezos also owns the Washington Post, a newspaper
\nthat Trump has repeatedly railed against in his
\ncriticisms of the news media. Representatives for the
\nWhite House and Amazon were not immediately available
\nfor comment. Shares of Amazon were last down 0.2% to
\n$1,183.50 in premarket trading.<\/p>\n
The numbers are in and our readers have spoken. We
\ntallied up the readership on our top 10 most-read
\nCoreLogic Insights blogs and found that top industry
\nexecutives were very focused on the health of the real
\nestate market, both nationally and in specific markets
\nacross the country this year. The most-read blog, by a
\nwide margin, was a text mining analysis of public
\nlisting information using word cloud which paired
\ncertain listing terms to higher sales prices. Word
\npairs like \u201cquiet street,\u201d \u201clarge backyard,\u201d and
\n\u201chardwood floors\u201d were among terms which could be tied
\nto higher sales prices. In addition, our audience also
\nengaged with our economic outlooks, credit
\navailability, and mortgage risk as prices continued
\ntheir upward spiral. And the envelope, please… Here
\nare the top ten most-read blog s (and video blogs) of
\nthe year:
\n– Public Listing Comments Can Have an Impact on
\nClosing Price
\n– Is the Credit Cycle Turning?
\n– California Million-Dollar Home Sales Climb to a Q1
\nPeak as Stocks Soar
\n– Highest and Lowest Risk US Housing Marketing as of
\nQ1 2017
\n– US Economic Outlook: February 2017
\n– Hurricane Matthew Clocks Top Wind Speed for 2016 at
\n101 MPH
\n– Health of the Housing Market as of Q2 2017
\n– US Economic Outlook: October 2017
\n– Purchase Mortgages, High LTVs May Up Fraud Risk in
\n2017
\n– The Accuracy of Comparable-Property Data in an
\nAppraisal Report
\n2017 was a very busy blog year for our economists, data
\nresearch analysts and modelers, product experts and
\nindustry SMEs. As we wrap up 2017 we\u2019re proud to have
\nshared over 150 online, audio and video blog postings
\nrepresenting more than 25 CoreLogic contributors. The
\naim of CoreLogic Insights is to in form, educate and
\nprovide perspective on many characteristics of the
\nhousing economy and property markets. Our blogs address
\nhousing policy and trends, mortgage performance,
\nproperty valuation, natural hazard risk, insurance and
\ninternational topics.<\/p>\n
After Republicans scored their first major legislative
\nvictory with a tax reform bill passed just before the
\nend of 2017, the\u00a0 has started
\nlooking ahead to next year\u2019s legislative docket. While
\nPresident Donald Trump\u2019s aggressive plans to reform
\nhealth care, infrastructure and the tax system during
\nthe first year of his tenure fell short on some
\naccounts, his plans for next year appear equally
\nambitious, with welfare and infrastructure reform
\ntopping the list, according to National Economic
\nDirector Gary Cohn. Here\u2019s a look at what the
\nadministration and Congress are set to take on as we
\nhead into the New Year.<\/p>\n
Health care<\/p>\n
While the GOP failed to pass multiple efforts to repeal
\nand replace the Affordable Care Act in 2017, the
\npresident has not given up on designs to overhaul the
\nformer administration\u2019s signature legislative
\nachievement. In a tweet fired off in November,
\nPresident Trump reiterated that ObamaCare is a
\n\u201cdisaster,\u201d adding that Republicans would begin to
\nrepeal and replace \u201cright after Tax Cuts.\u201d While
\ndifferent variations of repeal and replace narrowly
\nfailed to pass the Senate this year, the president took
\nsteps toward dismantling the Affordable Care Act
\nthrough an executive order issued in October. That
\norder directed the administration to look into allowing
\nemployers to form associations and obtain coverage
\nacross state lines, expanding the use of short-term
\nlimited duration insurance (STLDI) plans and expanding
\nthe use of Health Reimbursement Arrange ments, or
\ntax-free accounts that allow employers to reimburse
\nemployees for medical expenses. The overall goal of
\nthese directives, according to the White House, was to
\nprovide near-term relief for Americans and to lower
\ncosts by increasing competition and choice.<\/p>\n
Welfare reform<\/p>\n
One of the other items the president has brought up as
\na priority after Republicans overhaul the tax system is
\nreforming welfare, which includes government programs
\nlike Medicaid, Food Stamps and Housing Assistance.
\n\u201cWe\u2019re looking very strongly at welfare reform, and
\nthat\u2019ll all take place right after taxes, very soon,
\nvery shortly after taxes,\u201d Trump said at the White
\nHouse last month. During an interview with Axios in
\nlate-December, Cohn said he expected that welfare
\nreform would receive bipartisan support, with at least
\n60 votes in the Senate. There are bills currently
\nfloating around Congress that aim to strengthen work
\nrequirements for welfare programs, something that
\ncoincides with the administration\u2019s stated goals of
\nusing welfare as an interim strategy to help lift
\nAmericans out of unemployment and poverty. Office of
\nManagement and Budge t (OMB) director and Consumer
\nFinancial Protection Bureau (CFPB) interim director
\nMick Mulvaney, a known deficit hawk, said back in March
\nthat the administration was looking to create jobs and
\nput those who want to work, back to work. At the same
\ntime, he said the White House would weed out welfare
\nfreeloaders and take steps toward making sure Americans
\naren\u2019t exploiting programs, while assuring that the
\nadministration would not deny deserving people
\nservices.<\/p>\n
Infrastructure<\/p>\n
Senior White House officials have said President Trump
\nwill release the full details of his infrastructure
\nplan early next year. It is expected to require at
\nleast $200 billion in direct government funds over the
\ncourse of a decade, in addition to funding from the
\nprivate sector. While an infrastructure revamp was
\nwidely viewed as a bipartisan proposal at the outset of
\nthe president\u2019s tenure, experts believe the outlook may
\nbe murkier after the passage of a tax reform bill that
\ncould pile on to the deficit. Trump promised a $1
\ntrillion infrastructure overhaul, which was supposed to
\nbe detailed within his first 100 days in office. US
\nTransportation Secretary Elaine Chao said in September
\nthat states and localities will compete for government
\nfunds, with the most innovative projects winning more
\nfederal dollars. The infrastructure revamp is expected
\nto address everything from bridges, roads and airports
\nto energy, broadband and even Veterans Affairs
\nhospitals. Cohn told Axios that having broadband in
\nrural areas is a priority. He also said that the
\ngovernment needs to reimagine infrastructure based on
\nthe future, adding that the US can\u2019t keep building
\ncities in 2050.<\/p>\n
Housing reform
\nUS Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has been a key
\nplayer in the tax reform discussions, but has his
\nsights set on housing reform for the coming year. \u201cI am
\ndetermined that we have housing reform and that we come
\nup with a permanent solution for Fannie [Mae] and
\nFreddie [Mac] so that they\u2019re not in the current form,
\nwhich is essentially owned by the government,\u201d he said
\nduring a November speech at the Economic Club of New
\nYork. \u201cThat\u2019ll be a big focus of mine for next year.\u201d
\nMnuchin also said this is something he expected housing
\nreform to be completed on a \u201cbipartisan basis.\u201d<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a strange omission from the long list of
\nindustries vanquished, disrupted, and dismantled by the
\nInternet. Retail chains are closing, cabs are not being
\nhailed, and hotel rooms are going empty. But amid the
\nrumble and ruin of traditional commerce, multiple
\nlisting services (MLS) remain remarkably impervious to
\ndisruption. That isn\u2019t stopping would-be MLS disrupters
\nlike REX from trying. \u201cThe MLS is an antiquated tool
\ncreated by real estate brokers to keep buyers dependent
\non them,\u201d according to REX. \u201cBut the Internet changed
\nall that.\u201d The MLS has survived previous declarations
\nof its demise. If such predictions were true we should
\nnow see a marketplace filled with broker-less
\ntransactions, those selling for-sale-by-owner,
\nso-called FSBOs. In fact, precisely the opposite has
\nhappened. Self-sellers are a vanishing species.
\nAccording to the 2016 edition of the National
\nAssociation of Realtors (NAR) Profile of Home Buyers
\nand Sellers, \u201conly eight% of recent home sales were
\nFSBO sales again this year. For the second year, this
\nis the lowest share recorded since this report started
\nin 1981.\u201d But the picture is markedly different at the
\nlocal level in markets where MLS disrupters like REX
\nare operating. Single family home sales listed on the
\nMLS represented 89% of single family home sales deeds
\nrecorded in Los Angeles and Orange counties combined,
\naccording to an ATTOM Data analysis of public record
\ndeed data and MLS data provided by First Team Real
\nEstate, the largest independent brokerage in
\nCalifornia. Most off-MLS sales are the result of these
\nso-called pocket listings, according to Michael Mahon,
\npresident at First Team Real Estate, which covers the
\nSouthern California market. \u201cWe ha ve agents who have 50
\nto 75 buyers sitting there as pent-up demand waiting
\nfor listings,\u201d he said. \u201cA lot of these home sellers
\nare willing to entertain an offer that they feel is
\nfair for the asking price they are wanting to get for
\nthe property \u2026 a ready, willing and able buyer in queue
\nis very appealing.\u201d<\/p>\n
The share of off-MLS sales were also much higher than
\nthe national average across the country in Dallas and
\nPhoenix. An ATTOM Data Solutions analysis of MLS closed
\nsales counts provided by the Texas A&M Real Estate
\nCenter and public record closed sales counts in Dallas
\nCounty, Texas, shows MLS-closed sales of single family
\nhomes in 2016 represented 86% of single family home
\nsales recorded with the county for the year. In
\nMaricopa County, Arizona, home to the city of Phoenix,
\nMLS-closed sales of single family homes represented
\njust 75% of the single family home sales recorded with
\nthe county for 2016, up slightly from 74% in 2015,
\naccording to an ATTOM analysis. What do Dallas and
\nPhoenix have in common? They are both testing grounds
\nfor a quickly growing alternative to listing for sale
\non the MLS: iBuyers such as Opendoor and Offerpad.
\nOpendoor has been able to assemble $320 million in
\nequity and more than $500 million in debt financing.
\nSuch numbers instantly make Opendoor a notable player
\nin the local real estate markets where it is active.
\nMoreover, if it finds success, it will be able to go
\nback to the equity and credit markets for additional
\nfunding. \u201cThe Opendoor difference is simplicity,
\nconvenience and certainty,\u201d said Evan Moore, Opendoor\u2019s
\nhead of agent experience. \u201cFor sellers, Opendoor makes
\nit easy for homeowners to receive a fair market value
\noffer in a few clicks, eliminating the hassle of home
\nshowings and months of uncertainty and giving them the
\npower to close on their timeline. For buyers, Opendoor
\nalso provides the ultimate in convenience by providing
\non-demand access to Opendoor homes all day everyday.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just disruptive startups like Opendoor and
\nOfferpad that are expanding off-market purchasing,
\nhowever. HomeVestors, a 21-year-old company known for
\nthe \u201cWe Buy Ugly\u201d houses signs has exponentially
\nexpanded the markets it operates in since the housing
\nbust, according to CEO David Hicks. \u201cWe buy direct from
\nthe home owner, without hitting MLS,\u201d Hicks said. \u201cAnd
\nthe people we\u2019re buying them from, they don\u2019t want a
\nRealtor or anyone else traipsing through their house. \u2026
\nThey got cats or they got smell. Those are the houses
\nwe are buying.\u201d NetWorth Realty is another direct buyer
\nthat has been around for several years and is
\ncontinuing to grow, with 1,726 deals totaling $234
\nmillion in 2016, up from 941 deals totaling $88 million
\nin 2013, according to its website. \u201cWe\u2019ll find
\nproperties. Our properties are off-market, they a re not
\non the MLS,\u201d said Networth Realty president Mark Bloom,
\nadding that the properties are also kept off-market
\nwhen re-sold to investor clients in an effort to
\nprovide those clients with fixed pricing outside of a
\ncompetitive bidding environment. \u201cWe fix our pricing.
\nWe keep all of our inventory off market.\u201d The growing
\nnumber of acquisitions by iBuyers like Opendoor and
\nOfferpad are catching the attention of the Arizona
\nRegional MLS, which in its August STAT report devoted
\nthree pages of commentary to an analysis of off-MLS
\nsales in the market, including those by iBuyers. \u201cAs an
\nanalyst, the number one question I get asked is, \u2018What
\npercentage of homes sold are listed on the MLS?\u2019\u201d,
\nwrites Tom Ruff, housing analyst with The Information
\nMarket, a subsidiary of the ARMLS.<\/p>\n
Traditional MLS relationships are being challenged by a
\ngrowing number of member brokers who believe the
\nfastest and easiest way increase profits is to stop
\ndividing commissions, forget about MLS cooperation, and
\ncut out other brokers. \u201cOff-MLS listings may contribute
\nto the unraveling of the MLS as we know it,\u201d said
\nconsultant Stefan Swanepoel in a 2016 report published
\nby NAR called the Definitive Analysis of the Negative
\nGame Changers Emerging In Real Estate \u2013 the DANGER
\nReport. Is there a way that \u201ccoming soon\u201d transactions
\ncould be made more palatable? \u201cComing soon can be an
\nissue from many fronts,\u201d said Matthew L. Watercutter,
\nprincipal broker and senior regional vice president
\nwith Ohio-based HER Realtors. \u201cThe only way for \u2018coming
\nsoon\u2019 to be truly a benefit, is you still do not show
\nthe home to anyone until it is actively marketed, so
\nall potential buyers have a fair and equal
\nopportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NAR – pending home sales inch up 0.2% in November Pending home sales were mostly unmoved in November, but did squeak out a minor gain both on a monthly and annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Heading into 2018, existing-home sales and price growth are forecast to slow, primarily because of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[39],"tags":[193,69,100,219,45,216,218,217],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/841"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=841"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/841\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":842,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/841\/revisions\/842"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/team.simplyfreedom.ws\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}