Published on: Mar 20, 2015 @ 10:00 am

RealtyTrac released its US Foreclosure Market Report
for February 2015, which shows foreclosure filings —
default notices, scheduled auctions and bank
repossessions —

were reported on 101,938 US properties
in February, a decrease of 4% from revised January
numbers and down 9% from a year ago to the lowest level
since July 2006. The report also shows a US foreclosure
rate of one in every 1,295 housing units with a
foreclosure filing in February.  “Given that August
2006 was the peak of the housing bubble, this
eight-and-a-half year low in foreclosure activity is a
significant milestone and a sign that nationwide
foreclosure activity is on track to return to historic
norms this year — and is possibly even headed below
historic norms given the skinny-jeans-tight lending
standards over the past five years,” said Daren
Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “In markets
where foreclosures were processed more efficiently we
are seeing foreclosure numbers now below pre-crisis
levels in some cases. Conversely, the cleanup of
deferred distress is continuing in markets where a
logjam of in-limbo foreclosures is still lingering from
the housing crisis — as evidenced by rebounding
foreclosure activity in those markets.”  Despite the
national decrease from a year ago, 24 states posted a
year-over-year increase in overall foreclosure
activity, including Massachusetts (up 53%; fifth
consecutive month with an increase) and New York (up
19%; sixth consecutive month with an increase).

Nationwide, 48,079 properties started the foreclosure
process for the first time in February, down 5% from
revised January numbers and down 7% from a year ago.
Despite the national decrease in foreclosure starts, 22
states posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure
starts, including Nevada (up 153%; fourth consecutive
month with an increase), Massachusetts (up 116%; 11th
consecutive month with an increase), and Texas (up 5%;
five out of last six months with increase).
Nationwide, 45,880 properties were scheduled for a
future foreclosure auction in February, down 13% from
revised January numbers and down 4% from a year ago to
the lowest level since July 2006.  Despite the national
decrease in scheduled foreclosure auctions — which can
act as the foreclosure start in some states — 25 states
posted a year-over-year increase in scheduled
foreclosure auctions, including New York (up 146%;
ninth consecutive month with an increase),
Massachusetts (up 88%; third consecutive month with an
increase), New Jersey (up 38%; 15th consecutive month
with an increase), and Washington (up 17%; five out of
last seven months with an increase).  Nationwide,
24,305 properties were repossessed by lenders via
foreclosure (REO) in February, up 9% from revised
January numbers but down 20% from a year ago. February
was the 27th consecutive month where REOs nationwide
decreased on an annual basis.  Despite the national
decrease in REOs compared to a year ago, 15 states
posted year-over-year increases in REOs, including
Maryland (up 70%; fifth consecutive month with an
increase), New York (up 24%; four out of last five
months with an increase), Ohio (up 23%; third
consecutive month with an increase), and North Carolina
(up 18%; three out of last four months with an
increase).

Maryland foreclosure activity decreased 1% compared to
a year ago in February, but the state still posted the
nation’s highest foreclosure rate: one in every 564
housing units with a foreclosure filing.  Nevada
foreclosure activity in February increased 12% from a
year ago driven primarily by a spike in foreclosure
starts, and the state’s foreclosure rate was second
highest in the nation for the second month in a row.
One in every 569 Nevada housing units had a foreclosure
filing during the month.  Florida posted the nation’s
third highest state foreclosure rate — one in every 570
housing units with a foreclosure filing — despite a 35%
decrease in foreclosure activity from a year ago.
Other states with foreclosure rates among the top 10
highest nationwide in February were Indiana (one in
every 871 housing units with a foreclosure filing),
Idaho (one in every 877 housing units), New Jersey (one
in every 895 housing units), Illinois (one in every 906
housing units), Delaware (one in every 957 housing
units), Ohio (one in every 1,000 housing units), and
North Carolina (one in every 1,088 housing units).

Oil prices fall amid record inventories

Oil prices fell Thursday on expectations that
record-high crude inventories would continue to grow.
Light, sweet crude for April delivery settled down 70
cents, or 1.6%, to $43.96 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.  Brent, the global benchmark, fell
$1.48, or 2.6%, to $54.43 a barrel on ICE Futures
Europe.  A global glut of crude sent prices plummeting
in the second half of 2014, and analysts estimate the
market is currently oversupplied by between one million
and 1.5 million barrels a day.  The oversupply has been
especially concentrated in recent months in the US,
where stored supplies of crude have climbed for 10
straight weeks and currently sit at their highest level
in about 80 years, according to the Energy Information
Administration.  Traders have grown concerned that
inventories could reach maximum capacity in some
regions, a situation that could cause further price
drops if some buyers stop purchasing crude because they
have nowhere to store it.  Genscape Inc., a data
provider, told its subscribers Thursday that Cushing
supplies rose by 2.2 million barrels in the week ended
Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the
report.  Oil prices had gained on Wednesday, breaking
a six-session losing streak, on the back of a sharp
decline in the dollar after the Federal Reserve
indicated it was in no hurry to raise interest rates.
But the dollar was on the rise again on Thursday. Oil
is priced in dollars and becomes less attractive for
holders of foreign currencies as the dollar
appreciates.  Gasoline futures fell 2.48 cents, or
1.4%, to $1.7743 a gallon, while diesel futures slipped
5.02 cents, or 2.8%, to $1.7223 a gallon.

DataQuick – California February home sales

An estimated 25,585 new and existing houses and condos
sold in California in February 2015. That was up 1.0%
month over month from 25,325 sales in January 2015 and
down 0.4% year over year from 25,680 sales in February
2014.  February home sales have varied from a low of
20,513 sales in 2008 to a high of 48,409 sales in 2004.
The February 2015 sales were the lowest for that month
since 2008, and they were 18.7% lower than the February
average of 31,454 sales since 1988, when CoreLogic
DataQuick data began.  The median price paid for a home
in California in February 2015 was $378,000, up 0.5%
month over month from $376,000 in January 2015 and up
6.5% year over year from $355,000 in February 2014.
February 2015 marked the 36th consecutive month in
which the state’s median sale price increased on a
year-over-year basis. The peak year-over-year price
gain during that period was 29.2% in July 2013. Since
then price gains have trended lower and since July 2014
the year-over-year increases have been single-digit –
between about 6% and 7% from October 2014 through
February 2015.  The February 2015 median sale price
was 21.9% lower than California’s peak median price of
$484,000, reached in March/April/May 2007.

Of the existing homes sold statewide in February 2015,
6.8% were properties that had been foreclosed on during
the previous 12 months. That was up from a revised 6.7%
in January 2015 and down from 8.0% in February 2014.
Statewide foreclosure resales peaked at 58.8% in
February 2009.  Short sales made up an estimated 6.2%
of homes that resold in February 2015, down slightly
month over month from 6.7% in January 2015 and down
year over year from 9.0% in February 2014. Short sales
are transactions in which the sale price fell short of
what was owed on the property.  The typical monthly
mortgage payment for California homebuyers in February
2015 was $1,394, up from $1,379 in January 2015 and
down from $1,405 in February 2014. Adjusted for
inflation, the February 2015 typical payment was 39.7%
below the typical payment in the spring of 1989, which
was the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was
51.1% below the current cycle’s peak in June 2006 and
51.2% above the January 2012 trough of the current
cycle.

Mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity unexpectedly falls
Growth in factory activity in the US mid-Atlantic
region fell for a fourth straight month in March to its
lowest level in more than a year, a regional Federal
Reserve survey showed on Thursday.  The Philadelphia
Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index
slipped to 5.0 this month, the lowest since February
2014, from February’s 5.2. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast an increase to 7.1.  Any reading above
zero indicates expansion in the region’s manufacturing.
The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania,
southern New Jersey and Delaware.  It is seen as one of
the first monthly indicators of the health of US
manufacturing leading up to the national report by the
Institute for Supply Management.  Just four months ago,
in November, the Philadelphia Fed gauge had notched its
highest reading since December 1993, but has fallen
each month since then.

CoreLogic – dollar volume of negative equity increased
$7 billion from Q3 to Q4 2014

According to the latest CoreLogic Equity Report,
released today, the nationwide negative equity share
increased from 10.4% in Q3 2014 to 10.8% in Q4 2014,
and the number of underwater borrowers (or those in
negative equity) increased from 5.2 million to 5.4
million. The total dollar amount of negative equity was
up $7 billion from Q3 2014, totaling $348.8 billion in
Q4 2014.  Quarter over quarter, 29 states exhibited
increases in the negative equity share through Q4 2014.
Figure 1 illustrates the 25 states with the largest
percentage-point change in the negative equity share
from the previous quarter. Illinois experienced the
largest increase, up by 1.8 percentage points from Q3
2014 to Q4 2014, followed by Connecticut (+1.4%), New
Jersey (+1.4%) and Ohio (+1.3%). Nevada had the largest
decrease (-1.3%) from the previous quarter.  At the
metro level, Chicago had the highest total of
underwater dollars as of Q4 2014 at $17 billion,
followed by New York at $16 billion and Los Angeles at
$10 billion. Of the 10 CBSAs shown in Figure 2, seven
have negative equity shares above the national share of
10.8%.  Also according to the latest CoreLogic
analysis, mortgage default rates fell slightly in Q4
2014. Nationally, homes with positive equity had a
default rate of 0.5% and homes with negative equity had
a default rate of 3.1%.

Negative equity shares show stark differences when
broken out by price tiers. Trends suggests that there
is a high concentration of negative equity mortgages in
the low end of the housing market. Homes valued at less
than $100,000, for example, had a negative equity share
of 22% in Q4 2014, which is more than twice the
national share of 10.8%. Homes valued between $100,000
and $200,000 had the second highest negative equity
share of 13.6%. On the other end of the scale, homes
valued at more than $200,000 had only a 6.4% negative
equity share, but made up 56% of the negative equity
dollars nationwide.  Quarter over quarter, the number
of properties that were owner-occupied and had less
than 20-percent equity, thus considered under-equitied,
increased by 4.1%, or 345,239 homes, to the current
level of 8.7 million properties in Q4 2014.
Under-equitied non owner-occupied properties,
similarly, increased by 3.6%, or 45,501 homes, quarter
over quarter to the Q4 2014 level of 1.3 million homes.

MBA – 2014 rankings of commercial/multifamily mortgage
firms’ origination volumes

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released
its annual ranking of commercial/multifamily mortgage
firms by origination volume. The MBA study is the only
one of its kind to present a comprehensive set of
listings of 127 different commercial/multifamily
mortgage originators, their 2014 volumes and the
different roles they play.  The report, Commercial Real
Estate/Multifamily Finance Firms – Annual Origination
Volumes, presents origination volumes in more than 140
categories, including by role, by investor group, by
property type, by financing structure type, and by the
location of the originating office.  The top ten
commercial/multifamily mortgage originators in 2014
were: Wells Fargo; J.P. Morgan Chase & Company; Eastdil
Secured; HFF, L.P.; Meridian Capital Group, LLC;
KeyBank; CBRE Capital Markets, Inc.; Deutsche Bank
Securities Inc.; PNC Real Estate; and Bank of America
Merrill Lynch.  The report lists total originations
across eleven different investor groups. Ten different
companies were the top originator for at least one of
the different groups. The top three originators overall
and by each investor group are listed below:

Total Origination Volumes- Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan
Chase & Company and Eastdil Secured;

–  Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS)-
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Eastdil Secured and J.P.
Morgan Chase & Company;

–  Commercial Bank Portfolios- J.P. Morgan Chase &
Company, PNC Real Estate, and Meridian Capital Group,
LLC;

–  Life Insurance Company Portfolios- MetLife Real
Estate Investors, HFF, L.P., and Prudential Mortgage
Capital Company;

–  Fannie Mae- Walker & Dunlop, Wells Fargo, and
Berkadia;

–  Freddie Mac- CBRE Capital Markets, Inc., Berkadia,
and Walker & Dunlop;

–  FHA/Ginnie Mae: Red Mortgage Capital, LLC,
Greystone, and Berkadia;

–  Pension Funds- TIAA-CREF, Cornerstone Real Estate
Advisers, and CBRE Capital Markets, Inc.;

–  Credit Companies- CBRE Capital Markets, HFF, L.P.,
and Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation;

–  REITS, Mortgage REITS, and Investment Funds-
KeyBank, Eastdil Secured, and NorthStar Realty Finance;

–  Specialty Finance Firms- JLL, Mesa West Capital,
LLC, and Meridian Capital

–  “Other Investors”- Wells Fargo, HFF, L.P., and
Morgan Stanley.

By dollar volume, the top five originators for third
parties in 2014 were Eastdil Secured; HFF, L.P.;
Meridian Capital Group, LLC; CBRE Capital Markets; and
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

–  The top five lenders in 2014 were Wells Fargo, J.P.
Morgan Chase & Company, KeyBank, Deutsche Bank
Securities Inc., and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

DataQuick – Bay Area February home sales decline;
smaller gain for median sale price

CoreLogic released its February 2015 San Francisco Bay
Area housing market report. The number of homes sold
was slightly lower than in January and was the lowest
for the month of February in seven years. The median
price paid for a home also fell slightly from January
and the gain from a year earlier was the smallest since
the median sale price began rising on a year-over-year
basis nearly three years ago.  A total of 4,376 new and
existing houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay
Area in February 2015. That was down 1.1% month over
month from 4,423 sales in January 2015 and down 10.9%
year over year from 4,911 sales in February 2014,
according to CoreLogic DataQuick data.  February 2015
sales were the lowest for that month since February
2008, when 3,989 homes sold. The peak for February home
sales was in 2002, when 8,901 homes sold. The February
2015 sales tally was 28.6% below the historical
February average of 6,129 sales.  The median price paid
for a home in the Bay Area was $565,000 in February
2015. That was down 1.2% month over month from $572,000
in January 2014 and up 4.6% year over year from
$540,000 in February 2014.

The region’s median sale price has risen year over year
for 35 straight months, beginning in April 2012. During
the 25 months between June 2012 and June 2014, those
gains were double-digit, reaching as high as 33.5%. The
annual gains were either single-digit or low
double-digit between July 2014 and October 2014, and
since November 2014 the year-over-year increases in the
median sale price have been single-digit. The February
2015 median sale price’s 4.6% year-over-year gain
compared with February 2014 marked the smallest annual
increase for any month since the median price began
rising year over year in April 2012. In comparison, the
February 2014 median sale price rose 33.3% from
February 2013.  The Bay Area median sale price peaked
at $665,000 in June and July 2007 and dropped to a
post-boom low of $290,000 in March 2009.  “February is
always a bit odd from a numbers standpoint. March
should provide a better view of emerging trends this
year,” said Andrew LePage, CoreLogic DataQuick data
analyst. “That said, it is easy to see that supply is
still constrained. It’s also clear the mortgage market
remains off-kilter. Home loans are readily available
for those who have good credit, a W-2 income and who
are applying for a government-backed mortgage. But it
can still be challenging for others, such as the
self-employed and retired, even for those with a high
income or significant assets, or both.”

Other February 2015 Bay Area housing market highlights
include the following:

–  Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), an indicator of
mortgage availability, accounted for 20.5% of the Bay
Area’s home purchase loans in January, down from a
revised 22.0% in December 2014, and down from 25.1% in
January 2014. ARMs hit a low of 3.0% of purchase loans
in January 2009 and reached a post-housing-bust peak of
27.8% in April 2014. Since 2000, ARMs have accounted
for about 46% of all Bay Area purchase loans.

–  Foreclosure resales accounted for 4.5% of all
resales in February, up from a revised 4.4% in January
2015 and down from 5.0% in February 2014. Foreclosure
resales in the Bay Area peaked at 52.0% in February
2009, while the monthly average over the past 17 years
is about 10%. Foreclosure resales are purchased homes
that have been previously foreclosed upon in the prior
12 months.

–  Short sales accounted for an estimated 4.8% of Bay
Area resales in February, down from a revised 5.2% in
January 2015 and down from 6.3% in February 2014. Short
sales are transactions in which the sale price fell
short of what was owed on the property.

–  Absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 24.8%
of all Bay Area homes sold in February, up from a
revised 23.8% in January 2015 and up from 23.8% in
February 2014. The peak absentee share was 28.7% in
February 2013, and the monthly average since 2000, when
CoreLogic DataQuick absentee data began, is about 17%.

–  Cash buyers accounted for 26.7% of home sales in
February, up from a revised 23.6% in January 2015 and
down from 28.4% in February 2014. The peak was 32.3% in
February 2013, and the monthly average since 1988 is
about 14%.

–  The typical monthly mortgage payment for Bay Area
home buyers in February 2015 was $2,083. Adjusted for
inflation, that payment was 26.9% below the typical
payment in spring 1989, the peak of the prior real
estate cycle. It was 46.0% below the current cycle’s
peak in July 2007 and 65.5% above the February 2012
bottom of the current cycle.