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Black Knight – Mortgage Monitor

Black Knight – Mortgage Monitor:

tappable equity at
all-time high, but tax code changes could impact
homeowners’ utilization
– As of Q3 2017, approximately 42 million homeowners
with a mortgage have nearly $5.4 trillion in equity
available to borrow against, assuming a maximum 80%
total loan-to-value ratio
– Over 80% of all mortgage holders now have available
equity to tap via a first-lien cash-out refinance or
home equity line of credit (HELOC)
– Under the recently passed tax reform plan, interest
on HELOCs is no longer deductible, increasing the
post-tax expense of such products for those who itemize
– HELOCs have been an attractive option for borrowers
to utilize available equity without sacrificing low
first- lien interest rates; with interest on these
products no longer deductible, the value proposition
has changed
– In many cases, for borrowers with high unpaid
princ ipal balances (UPB), taking out low-dollar lines
of credit, the math still favors HELOCs
– However, for low-to-moderate UPB borrowers taking
out larger amounts of equity – assuming interest on
cash-out refinances remains deductible – the post-tax
math may now favor such products instead, even if it
results in a slight increase to first lien interest
rates

The Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc.
released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on
data as of the end of November 2017. This month, Black
Knight finds that tappable equity – the amount of
equity available for homeowners to borrow against
before reaching a maximum 80% total loan-to-value (LTV)
ratio – is at an all-time high. However, as Black
Knight Data & Analytics Executive Vice President Ben
Graboske explained, recent changes to the US tax code
may have implications for homeowners’ utilization of
that equity. “As of the end of Q3 2017, 42 million
homeowners with a mortgage now have an aggregate of
nearly $5.4 trillion in equity available to borrow
against,” said Graboske. “That is an all-time high, and
up more than $3 trillion since the bottom of the market
in 2012. Over 80% of all mortgage holders now have
available equity to tap, whether via first-lien
cash-out refinances or home equity lines of credit
(HELOCs). We’ve noted in the past that as interest
rates rise from historic lows, HELOCs represented an
increasingly attractive option for these homeowners to
access their available equity without relinquishing
interest rates below today’s prevailing rate on their
first-lien mortgages. However, with the recently passed
tax reform package, interest on these lines of credit
will no longer be deductible, which increases the
post-tax expense of HELOCs for those who itemize. While
there are obviously multiple factors to consider when
identifying which method of equity extraction makes
more financial sense for a given borrower, in many
cases, for those with high unpaid principal balances
who are taking out lower line amounts, the math still
favors HELOCs. However – assuming interest on cash-out
refina nces remains deductible – for low-to-moderate UPB
borrowers taking out larger amounts of equity, the
post-tax math for those who will still itemize under
the increased standard deduction may now favor cash-out
refinances instead, even if the result is a slight
increase to first-lien interest rates.

“As rates continue to rise and the cost associated with
increasing the rate on an entire first-lien balance
rises as well, the benefit pendulum will likely swing
back toward HELOCs. Even so, the change could certainly
impact HELOC lending volumes and loan amounts in the
coming months and years. To a certain degree, the same
question holds true for cash-out refinances, since tax
debt for homeowners who will no longer itemize becomes
generally more expensive without mortgage interest
deduction in the equation. These refinances will likely
be an attractive source of secured debt in the future,
but increased post-tax costs may have a negative impact
on originations. That said, it still remains to be seen
whether and to what extent tax costs will impact
borrower decisions in terms of either HELOCs or
cash-out refinances. At this point, only time will
tell.” The increase in equity, driven by rising home
prices, has also continued to shrink the population of
underwater borrowers who owe more on their mortgages
than their homes are worth. The number of underwater
borrowers declined by 800,000 over the first nine
months of 2017, a 37% decline in negative equity since
the start of the year. Only 2.7% of homeowners with a
mortgage (approximately 1.36 million borrowers) now owe
more than their home is worth, the lowest such rate
since 2006. Though still elevated from pre-recession
levels, the negative equity rate continues to
normalize. Even so, home prices in large portions of
the country remain below pre-recession peaks. While 36
states and 70% of Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
have now surpassed pre-recession home price peaks, 43
of the nation’s 100 largest markets still lag behind.

As was reported in Black Knight’s most recent First
Look news release, other key results include:
– Total US loan delinquency rate: 4.55%
– Month-over-month change in delinquency rate: 2.54%
– Total US foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.66%
– Month-over-month change in foreclosure pre-sale
inventory rate: -3.15%
– States with highest percentage of non-current loans:
MS, FL, LA, AL, WV
– States with lowest percentage of non-current loans:
MT, MN, OR, ND, CO
– States with highest percentage of seriously
delinquent loans: MS, FL, LA, TX, AL

Wall Street new year rally pauses as healthcare, bank
stocks weigh

The benchmark S&P 500 opened lower for the first time
in 2018 on Monday, as losses in healthcare and
financial stocks cut short Wall Street’s strongest
start to a year in a decade. The S&P and the Nasdaq
last week recorded its strongest first four trading
days in a year since 2006, and the Dow industrials
posted its best since 2003. “We had a strong market in
the past week, and what generally happens in the first
week sets the trend for the remainder of the year. Now
that it’s established, there could be some profit-
taking,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at
First Standard Financial in New York. At 9:41 a.m. ET,
the S&P 500 was down 2.84 points, or 0.10%, at
2,740.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down
31.55 points, or 0.12%, at 25,264.32, and the Nasdaq
Composite was down 4.19 points, or 0. 06%, at 7,132.37.
The Dow and the Nasdaq still eked out record highs
briefly after open. The dollar inched higher against a
basket of major peers with data showing that slower US
jobs growth did little to dent expectations for further
interest rate increases this year.

Capital Region totals exceed height of subprime crisis
A decade after the subprime mortgage crisis put
millions of Americans out of their homes, dozens of
houses are still falling into foreclosure each month in
the Capital Region. The trend continues despite a
much-improved economy, more-careful mortgage industry
practices and an infrastructure of support that has
been created for borrowers facing the loss of their
homes. “We have noticed that the number of foreclosures
have not gone back to pre-Great Recession levels,” said
James Flacke, executive director of Better
Neighborhoods Inc., a Schenectady nonprofit that
provides assistance to homeowners facing mortgage
foreclosure. Statistics compiled by ATTOM Data
Solutions show the following combined foreclosure
totals for Albany, Fulton, Montgomery, Saratoga,
Schenectady and Schoharie counties:
2006: 156
2007: 386
2008: 495
2009: 451
2010: 554
2011: 211
2012: 330
2013: 377
2014: 625
2015: 902
2016: 1,056
2017: 777
The 2017 total is for 11 months — December numbers were
not yet available. The other years count all 12 months.
And the totals are only mortgage foreclosures by
lenders — foreclosures by municipalities for nonpayment
of taxes are not included.

The head of another non-profit that offers housing
counseling, the Affordable Housing Partnership in
Albany, said the foreclosure rate never really slowed
after the subprime crisis. “The basic reasons are still
loss of income, primarily, or health reasons, or
divorce,” Executive Director Susan Cotner said. “The
big economic downturn crisis has passed but still
people struggle with their mortgages all the time.”
ATTOM found that New York had the 10th highest rate of
foreclosure among the 50 states as of September: one
foreclosure for every 1,671 housing units. ATTOM also
found that foreclosure activity of all types — default
notices, repossessions and auctions — in the third
quarter of 2017 was at its lowest level in 11 years
nationwide. The Capital Region apparently has not been
following the downward trend. There were 1,681 such
notices issued in the Capital Region from Nov. 21 to
Dec. 20, 1,500 one month earlier, and 1,528 two months
earlier. They had been averaging about 1,400 a month.

Oil approaches 2015 highs on fewer US rigs,

OPEC
Oil prices rose on Monday, coming close to new
three-year highs on a slight decline in the number of
US rigs drilling for new production and sustained OPEC
output cuts. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures
had risen to $61.94 a barrel by 1140 GMT, 50 cents
above their last settlement. WTI last week reached
$62.21, the highest since May 2015. Brent crude futures
were at $67.95 a barrel, 33 cents above their last
close. Brent hit $68.27 last week, the highest since
May 2015. Traders said the gains were due to a slight
decline in the number of US rigs drilling for new
production. The rig count eased by five in the week to
Jan. 5 to 742, according to data from oil services firm
Baker Hughes. Despite this, US production is expected
soon to rise above 10 million barrels per day, largely
thanks to soaring output from shale drillers. Only
Russia and Saudi Arabia produce more.

Trump expected to dilute Dodd-Frank in 2018

Analysts at Goldman Sachs think two issues will be the
subject of reform in 2018. “First, a few smaller issues
stand a good chance of enactment,” said the global
analytics team in an email to clients. “Among these are
health legislation that would incrementally stabilize
the ACA and banking legislation that would make
incremental changes to the Dodd-Frank Act. So, say
“Adios, Dodd-Frank,” Goldman says the president is
coming for you. Here’s the rest of the prediction:
“Second, Congress faces new fiscal deadlines. Spending
authority expires January 19 and the debt limit must be
raised by March. These deadlines could lead to
near-term uncertainty but are also likely to lead to
some additional fiscal stimulus. We expect spending
caps to be lifted and a third round of disaster relief
funding to be approved as part of the process.”

See you at the top!

Categories
Real Estate News

Anticipation high as California rolls out retail pot sales

Anticipation high as California rolls out retail pot
sales

Californians may awake on New Year’s Day to a
stronger-than-normal whiff of marijuana as America’s
cannabis king lights up to celebrate the state’s first
legal retail pot sales. The historic day comes more
than two decades after California paved the way for
legal weed by passing the nation’s first medical
marijuana law, though other states were quicker to
allow the drug’s recreational use. From the small town
of Shasta Lake just south of Oregon to San Diego on the
Mexican border, the first of about 90 shops licensed by
the state will open Monday to customers who previously
needed a medical reason or a dope dealer to score pot.
In November 2016, California voters legalized
recreational marijuana for adults 21 and older, making
it legal to grow six plants and possess an ounce of
pot. The state was given a year to set retail market
regulations that are still being formalized and will be
phased in over the next year. “We’re thrilled,” said
Khalil Moutawakkil, founder of KindPeoples, which
grows, manufactures and sells weed in Santa Cruz. “We
can talk about the good, the bad and the ugly of the
specific regulations, but at the end of the day it’s a
giant step forward, and we’ll have to work out the
kinks as we go.” The long, strange trip to get here has
been a frustrating one for advocates of a drug that in
the federal government’s eyes remains illegal and in a
class with heroin.

The state banned “loco-weed” in 1913, according to a
history by the National Organization for the Reform of
Marijuana Laws, the pot advocacy group known as NORML.
The first attempt to undo that by voter initiative in
1972 failed, but three years later felony possession of
less than an ounce was downgraded to a misdemeanor. In
1996, over objections of law enforcement, the drug czar
under President Bill Clinton and three former
presidents who warned it was an enormous threat to the
public health of “all Americans,” California voters
approved marijuana for medicinal purposes. While the
rollout of grassroots collectives of growers and
dispensaries where marijuana could be sold to patients
was at times messy, the law led to wider acceptance of
the drug as medicine. “The heavens didn’t fall,” said
Dale Gieringer, director of California NORML. “We
didn’t see increased youth drug abuse or increased
accidents or crazy things happening as our opponents
predicted.” Today, 28 other states have adopted similar
laws. In 2012, Colorado and Washington became the first
states to legalize recreational marijuana. California
is one of five states, plus Washington, D.C., that
followed suit. Retail sales are scheduled to begin in
Massachusetts in July.

Fannie and Freddie regain capital reserves; withhold
billions from Treasury

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have capital reserves again.
As expected, the government-sponsored enterprises on
Friday made their quarterly dividend payments to the
Department of the Treasury. But, thanks to the new
agreement between the Federal Housing Finance Agency
and the Treasury, each of the GSEs withheld billions
from the Treasury to ensure that each has enough
capital on hand to “cover other fluctuations in income
in the normal course of each Enterprise’s
business.”Under the previous version of the Preferred
Stock Purchase Agreements that went into effect when
the government took the GSEs into conservatorship,
Fannie and Freddie send dividends to the Treasury each
quarter that they are profitable. The PSPAs also
stipulated that the GSEs were prohibited from
rebuilding capital and each of the GSEs’ capital base
was required to be reduced, with their capital reserves
scheduled to be drawn down to $0 in 2018. But that all
changed earlier this month when the FHFA announced a
new agreement with the Treasury that allows the GSEs to
hold a $3 billion capital reserve. Collectively, the
GSEs made dividend payments this week to the Treasury
of $2.897 billion. Of that, $2.249 billion came from
Freddie Mac and $648 million came from Fannie Mae.

But those amounts are far less than the amount of
profit that each GSE made in the third quarter. Freddie
Mac’s profit was $4.7 billion, while Fannie Mae’s
checked in at $3 billion, but unlike previous quarters,
the GSEs did not send all of their profits to the
Treasury. Based on some rough calculations, Freddie
withheld $2.451 billion from the Treasury, while Fannie
withheld $2.352 billion. As the chart from the FHFA
states: “As set forth in the Letter Agreement dated
December 21, 2017, amending the Certificate of
Designation of Terms of Variable Liquidation Preference
Senior Preferred Stock, Series 2008-2, the dividend
amount is the Net Worth Amount for the dividend period
minus the Applicable Capital Reserve Amount. Beginning
in 2018, the Capital Reserve Amount is set at $3
billion under most circumstances.” With the $2.897
billion sent to the Treasury for the third quarter,
Fannie and Freddie have now paid approximately $278.783
billion to the Treasury in dividend payments since the
fourth quarter of 2008.

US steelmakers raise their bets

Steelmakers are betting on the US again, building mills
they hope will help them compete against cheap imports
as demand rises. Steel companies have complained for
years that steel from China, South Korea, Vietnam,
Turkey and elsewhere is being sold in the US for less
than the cost to make it. While imports are still
increasing, steel prices are also on the rise globally.
And demand for US steel is starting to rebound, thanks
to rising oil prices and a strengthening manufacturing
sector, steel executives say. Still, others see
expansion as a risky bet. Some steel companies say they
can capture more customers with new plants that can
make more steel at less cost than older plants, and can
deliver it faster to customers. They’re also counting
on additional US tariffs to drive out cheap,
foreign-made steel, creating more opportunities for
domestic producers. S tiff tariffs imposed over the past
18 months have significantly slowed steel imports from
China, according to Commerce Department reports. Nucor
Corp. is building a $250 million steel mill in Sedalia,
Mo. Startup Big River Steel LLC in Osceola, Ark.,
accelerated production early this year at one of the
largest new steel sheet mills built in the US in years.
And Tenaris SA started making pipe for oil and gas
wells at a new $1.8 billion mill near Houston this
month.

California’s record poverty and real-estate bubble are
creating a “wheel-estate” boom of people with good jobs
living in their cars

Extreme housing prices in California — driven by a
combination of speculation, favorable legal/tax
positions for landlords, foreclosures after the 2008
crisis, and an unwillingness to build public housing —
has created vast homeless encampments, but there’s a
less visible side to the crisis: working people in
“good jobs” who have to live in their cars. There’s a
whole subreddit devoted to these folks, a mix of maker
culture (modding cars to make them more comfortable as
homes), hobo chalk-marks (where can you park, and for
how long?), and generalized anxiety. It’s not just
single middle-class people, either — they’re roaming
America’s streets in company with a vast nomad army of
homeless seniors who drive from town to town looking
for seasonal work to repla ce their busted pensions.
What’s striking in California is that many communities
already accept people living in vehicles, despite there
often being rules or laws against it. This fall, the
city of San Diego expanded its Safe Parking Program,
which designates lots that can be used by those living
out of their cars, and many other cities have similar
programs. Under a law passed last year, Los Angeles
also allows overnight parking in some commercial
districts. In Mountain View, the mayor brags about the
services his city provides to those living in more than
330 cars, trucks and RVs. So long as vehicle dwellers
aren’t in residential areas, the NIMBY attitudes that
have helped spur California’s housing shortage seem to
be relatively in check. And given the many huge parking
lots that are empty overnight, capacity is not going to
be a problem if living in vehicles becomes a Califor nia
phenomenon — at least if owners of those lots have a
compassionate streak or can monetize this use of their
property. Given the centrality of Golden State’s car
culture to its image and history — reflected in movies
like “American Graffiti” and in the once-huge
popularity of drive-in restaurants and movie theaters —
a redefinition of the car in California as not being
about independence and adventurousness but about
shelter would be a twist that not many state residents
would have seen coming 25 years ago.

Foreclosure rate in Minnesota lowest in a decade

The foreclosure rate in Minnesota is now at the lowest
level in more than a decade, and far below the national
average.At the end of September, just 0.2% of all
Minnesota homeowners with a mortgage lost their homes
to foreclosure, according to CoreLogic, which tracks
mortgage delinquencies at several intervals. That rate
was down from 0.3% last year and was only about a third
of the national average. At the same time, far fewer
homeowners are having trouble staying current on their
mortgage payments. In Minnesota, 2.9% of all homeowners
were 30 or more days late on their payment compared
with 3.1% last year. “We’re encouraged to see another
year of flat or declining delinquency rates for
homeowners across Minnesota,” said Julie Gugin,
director of the Minnesota Homeownership Center. “It
shows people are in the right homes f or their families
and their wallets.” During the height of the
foreclosure crisis, the organization’s counselors were
overwhelmed by demand from homeowners who needed help
avoiding foreclosure, Gugin said. Today, the need has
shifted to providing unbiased information and hands-on
financial coaching for low-income families that want to
buy a home. “They want to make choices based on solid
and factual information,” Gugin said. “Rent prices are
on the rise and homeownership is a valuable
asset-building alternate for some families.”

Gugin said that while declining foreclosures are
clearly a positive sign, underlying problems linger.
Namely, the recession and subsequent economic recovery
only broadened the homeownership gap in Minnesota.
There are more low-income families than before that are
unable to own a home. “Our goal is to ensure that
homeownership’s benefits are fairly available and
sustainable to everyone, no matter their race or where
they live,” she said. “Next year — and even 10 years
from now — we want the delinquency rate to stay low,
and with a closed homeownership gap. Individuals and
families, communities and our state would be better off
as a result.” Foreclosure rates across the country are
also falling. Nationwide, the foreclosure rate fell
slightly from 0.8% to 0.6%, and the 30-day plus
delinquency rate fell from 5.2% last year to 5.0% in
September. There was a slight increase, however, in the
number of homeowners who were 30 to 59 days late on
their payments, mostly because of hurricane-related
troubles in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico.

Categories
Real Estate News

NAHB – builders confident as market primed to expand in 2018

NAHB – builders confident as market primed to expand in
2018

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built
single-family homes increased five points to a level of
74 in December on the National Association of Home
Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) after a
downwardly revised November reading. This was the
highest report since July 1999, over 18 years ago.
“Housing market conditions are improving partially
because of new policies aimed at providing regulatory
relief to the business community,” said NAHB Chairman
Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from
Kerrville, Texas. “The HMI measure of home buyer
traffic rose eight points, showing that demand for
housing is on the rise,” said NAHB Chief Economist
Robert Dietz. “With low unemployment rates, favorable
demographics and a tight supply of existing home
inventory, we can expect continu ed upward movement of
the single-family construction sector next year.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been
conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing
Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current
single-family home sales and sales expectations for the
next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey
also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective
buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to
very low.” Scores for each component are then used to
calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number
over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as
good than poor. All three HMI components registered
gains in December. The component measuring buyer
traffic jumped eight points to 58, the index gauging
current sales conditions rose four points to 81 and the
index charting s ales expectations in the next six
months increased three points to 79. Looking at the
three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores,
the Midwest climbed six points to 69, the South rose
three points to 72, the West increased two points to 79
and Northeast inched up a single point to 54.

Wall Street poised for record on tax bill hopes
Wall Street’s main indexes hit new highs on Monday as
the long-awaited tax overhaul plan looked set for
legislation and buoyed by a flurry of year-end
corporate dealmaking that has topped $11 billion so
far. More US Republicans Senators on Sunday threw their
weight behind the tax bill they expect Congress to pass
this week. A Senate vote is set for Tuesday and
President Donald Trump is expected to sign the bill
into law by the end of the week.US stocks have enjoyed
a near year-long rally, of late powered by increasing
expectations of the promised tax overhaul, which aims
to lower corporate taxes to 21% from 35%, coming to
fruition. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained 19.5% so far
in 2017, set for its best year since 2013, as investors
bet that lower taxes could boost corporate profits and
trigger share buybacks and higher dividend payouts.

“The market is going to continue its rally based on the
belief that we’re going to see the Congress pass tax
reform,” said Robert Pavlik, Chief Investment
Strategist at SlateStone Wealth in New York. “People
are a bit weary about how long the rally will last, but
earnings continue to grow, (the) tax package should
help and the economy is doing well,” Pavlik said. “I‘m
very positive about the overall market. Lower corporate
taxes could also trigger cash repatriation, which
market analysts say could be used for merger and
acquisitions. On Monday, investors were treated to a
flood of deals.

CoreLogic – home price winners and losers

Since the US began recovering from the home-price bust
in 2006, economists have used the peak-to-current
change in prices as a measure of recovery in markets.
However, the peak-to-current change hyper-focuses on
economic losses for those who bought at the peak. What
about consumers who bought homes while prices were at
the bottom of the cycle? If someone was lucky enough to
buy as a market hit bottom and began to recover, they
have seen large home-price gains. Our view of home
price changes shows the peak-to-trough and
peak-to-current changes in the CoreLogic Home Price
Index (HPI) for the US, the four states with the
largest peak-to-current declines, and the four states
with the largest peak-to-current gains. In the states
where the HPI has passed the pre-crisis peak, the peak
used to calculate the numbers in Figure 1 is the
pre-crisis peak. The U S HPI peaked in 2006, and
returned to the 2006 peak in September 2017. Nevada
has the largest peak-to-current decline of any state,
and had the largest peak-to-trough decrease at 60%. On
the other end, North Dakota had a shallow
peak-to-trough decline, and has risen 47% above the
prior peak seen in 2008. A different view of the HPI
illustrates the depths of the most notable state-level
price declines and the subsequent upward trajectory in
those states, including the peak-to-trough and
trough-to-current HPI changes for the US and the seven
states that had larger peak-to-trough declines than the
US For the nation, from the 2006 peak to the 2011
trough, the loss was 33%, but from the 2011 trough to
September 2017 the gain was 50%. The most extreme drop
in the HPI was in Nevada, but prices in that state have
gained 89% since hitting bottom in 2012. For reference,
we can compare the gains in the HPI to gains in the
stock market. The S&P 500 fell 51% from peak to trough,
but has gained 229% from the trough through September
2017. The large price gains since the home-price bottom
translate into large amounts of home equity gained by
homeowners, improving their balance sheets. As shown in
the CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Report, in the 12 months
ending in September 2017, the average homeowner gained
nearly $15,000 in equity. Only seven states had equity
gains over the past year, but California and Nevada
stand out with the largest gains at $37,000 and
$23,000, respectively.

Average US gas price drops 3 cents to $2.51 for regular
The average price of a gallon of regular-grade gasoline
dropped 3 cents nationally over the past two weeks to
$2.51. Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg of the Lundberg
Survey said Sunday that further declines are likely
because US gas supplies are flush. The current gas
price is 25 cents above where it was a year ago. Gas in
San Francisco was the highest in the contiguous United
States at an average of $3.22 a gallon. The lowest was
in Jackson, Mississippi, at $2.14 a gallon. The US
average diesel price is $2.88, holding steady from two
weeks ago.